The US Catch-Up Race in Rare Earths: Trump Brings Out the Bazooka

How much longer will China hold the upper hand?
James Litinsky believes that demand for heavy rare earths used in magnets will decline and that their prices will fall. His statements have caused considerable turmoil in the industry, as Litinsky is the CEO of MP Materials, operator of the largest rare earth mine outside China. The mining company pursues a fully integrated approach and does not intend to stop at raw material extraction. Refining and separation facilities for all rare earth metals are just as much a part of the company’s strategy as its own magnet factory. Thanks to MP Materials, the United States has become the world’s second-largest producer of rare earths. Of the approximately 51,000 tonnes of rare earth concentrate produced in the US in 2025, MP Materials alone supplied nearly 50,700 tonnes. Litinsky’s statements do not diminish the importance of critical minerals in the global balance of power, which is shaped by the rivalry between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies. [1]LINK
Although the gap to China’s dominance in rare earths is narrowing, it remains substantial: according to US data, China produced 270,000 tonnes in 2025 and holds an estimated 70 percent global market share. The main products from Mountain Pass, the California mine operated by MP Materials, are concentrates of the light rare earths neodymium and praseodymium. These are key elements in the extremely powerful permanent magnets used in electric vehicles and wind turbines. Litinsky’s remarks also caused surprise because MP Materials had announced plans to begin producing the heavy rare earths dysprosium and terbium from mid-2026 onward. These are typically added in small quantities to neodymium magnets to improve heat resistance.
Rare Earths in Exchange for Taiwan Concessions
However, the ore at Mountain Pass contains relatively small amounts of heavy rare earths. MP Materials states that it has produced and stockpiled more than 200 tonnes of heavy rare earth oxides (HREO+). Yet in order to supply enough material for its planned magnet factory in Texas, Litinsky must source material from other deposits as well. Here lies the problem: while China dominates light rare earths and Western countries such as the US are slowly beginning to break this dominance, the market for heavy rare earths remains almost entirely under Beijing’s control. In addition, the number of Western competitors vying for the few non-Chinese sources continues to grow.
It will likely take many years before the US and allied nations such as Australia and Brazil can independently produce significant quantities of heavy rare earths. Until then, Beijing holds the stronger position. Trump is well aware of this, as he is scheduled to visit Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday and Friday for a state visit. Critical raw materials will play a central role in these talks — and not to the US president’s advantage. Asia analyst David Sacks even considers it possible that Xi could extract concessions on Taiwan from Trump in exchange for raw material supplies.
Trump’s aggressive foreign policy has further exposed dependence on Chinese raw materials. The Iran war has depleted weapons arsenals. In just the first four days of the attacks, the US and Israel together expended over 5,000 units of ammunition, including extremely expensive interceptor missiles used against Iran’s low-cost drones. The US think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) estimates the value of the material fired in the first 100 hours of the war at between USD 10 and 16 billion.
The EU defense sector has also seen rising demand for a wide range of raw materials. The reason is the war in Ukraine and the broader military buildup intended to prepare for a potential Russian attack. The EU can no longer rely on the US as a protective power and NATO ally.
Replenishing Patriot Missiles Is Not a Matter of Money
Reports about empty US Army ammunition stockpiles may be exaggerated, but it can still take up to two years before the US defense industry is able to replenish certain strategically important weapons systems. This applies both to expensive high-tech defense systems such as Patriot and THAAD and to offensive long- and medium-range missiles. According to an FPRI analysis, money is not the problem.
Every warhead, guided missile system, drone, and radar contains small amounts of neodymium, terbium, dysprosium, samarium, or gallium. These account for only a fraction of total costs: in a USD 4.5 million Patriot interceptor missile, these materials represent merely USD 5,000 to 15,000, according to FPRI calculations. The greatest obstacle is access to these specialty metals — and Beijing holds the key, skillfully using it as leverage.
Gallium is another material that lies almost entirely under Chinese control: China accounts for 98 percent of the global market for this semiconductor-critical material. When the US, under Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden, attempted to cripple China’s chip industry, Beijing first responded with export restrictions and later even imposed an export ban on gallium. Germanium and superhard metals such as antimony were also affected. However, the gallium export ban did not hit the US particularly hard. Industry succeeded in switching to suppliers from Japan, Germany, and Canada, leading to a drastic reduction in direct imports from China.
But China escalated further and imposed export restrictions on the heavy rare earths holmium, erbium, thulium, europium, and ytterbium, as well as on technologies related to the mining, processing, and recycling of rare earths. At least Trump and Xi managed to agree on a temporary truce one year ago, although it will expire this November. China does not approve export applications for listed raw materials intended for military use.

USD 43 Billion for Securing Raw Materials
For America’s reduced weapons arsenal, this poses a major problem. Building reliable supply chains for rare earths and other specialty metals therefore ranks high on Trump’s agenda and is primarily geared toward military needs. Funding for raw-material initiatives has totaled approximately USD 14 billion since the start of Trump’s second term. However, securing raw materials had already gained substantial importance under Joe Biden. Since 2021, the US has invested an estimated USD 43 billion into raw-material-related sectors.
The stockpiling program “Project Vault,” announced in February alone, is worth USD 12 billion. The US Export-Import Bank (Eximbank) is providing USD 10 billion in direct loans, while the remainder is expected to come from the private sector. It is the largest financing package in the bank’s history. Project Vault is intended to shield domestic industry from supply bottlenecks, expand the production and processing of critical raw materials in the US, and fundamentally strengthen the raw materials sector.
Given their importance for a wide range of military equipment, the 15 rare earth elements enjoy the highest priority among the 60 minerals classified as critical by the government. This is also reflected in Project Vault: selected rare earths are given priority in stockpiling.
Gallium is a key element for semiconductors and military equipment. The material has not been produced in the US for four decades. It can be recovered as a byproduct of aluminum and zinc production. The challenge with gallium lies in the small market volume compared to other metals, making economic extraction highly difficult. China’s massive aluminum production enables economically viable gallium recovery there. In September, the US Department of Energy launched its own subsidy program called TRACE-Ga for gallium extraction, worth USD 6 million.
The Department of Energy has also allocated USD 140 million in funding for the construction of a demonstration facility for rare earth production. The aim is to prove the feasibility of a plant for extracting and separating rare earth elements, as well as a refinery. The funding is part of a USD 1 billion financing package for the raw materials sector.
US Government Relies on Market Intervention in the Rare Earth Industry
One of the Trump administration’s most extraordinary measures in raw materials policy is the Pentagon’s investment in MP Materials. Last October, the Pentagon spent USD 400 million to acquire a 15 percent stake in the company. The deal includes a ten-year purchase commitment and a controversial minimum price guarantee of USD 110 per kilogram of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide. This means the Pentagon commits to covering the difference should prices fall below the USD 110 threshold.
Price guarantees are intended to protect industrial development from market distortions caused by China, which in the not-too-distant past already destroyed an entire generation of rare earth companies. The industry has therefore long demanded protective mechanisms of this kind. However, there are also critics of such measures.
The challenge lies in providing rare earth producers with investment security without creating new market distortions or trade barriers. Furthermore, not all rare earth companies can count on minimum price guarantees. Washington has moved away from offering them universally, largely due to the strained US budget situation.
When the Pentagon announced its investment in MP Materials in July 2025, the guaranteed minimum price was nearly twice the market level. Currently, the market price stands at USD 112. Historically, the price of NdPr oxide exceeded the USD 80 mark only once between 2013 and 2020. Since then, the trend has been upward, but prices have generally remained well below USD 110. Exceptions occurred at the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and at the beginning of the Iran war.
Permanent Magnets Without Heavy Rare Earths
MP Materials is also receiving a USD 150 million loan from the Pentagon to expand its heavy rare earth separation facility. Initially, dysprosium and terbium are to be produced there — precisely the two elements that MP Materials’ CEO stated last week could soon become obsolete for magnets. Litinsky emphasized that the company is capable of producing “magnets with the required specifications and with very little or no heavy metal content.”
Prices for dysprosium metal have indeed trended downward for several years and currently stand at USD 260. Terbium metal, by contrast, currently trades well above USD 1,000. Its price has risen by roughly one-third since 2020. Some observers doubt that complete substitution of dysprosium and terbium in high-performance permanent magnets is possible. They interpret Litinsky’s remarks as an indication of difficulties in producing these elements. On the other hand, magnet manufacturers have genuinely managed to steadily reduce dysprosium and terbium requirements in magnets in recent years.
BMW demonstrates that powerful electric vehicle motors can function entirely without rare earths. The German automaker drew lessons from the 2010 rare earth crisis and deliberately opted for an alternative technology to protect itself against future geopolitical risks. Despite this, BMW still consumes several hundred kilograms of rare earths annually, as these are used in the many small electric motors operating everything from windshield wipers to power windows.
Full Integration Is the Trend: From Mine to Magnet Factory
MP Materials aims not merely to mine raw materials but to cover the entire value chain: from the mine to processing and separation facilities and ultimately to the magnet factory. The latter is planned for Texas. MP Materials is receiving further financial support from Washington for its construction. The private sector is also participating in financing: Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase intend to contribute USD 1 billion.
The US also has an old ally in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia, which, facing peak oil concerns, is increasingly expanding into the metals sector. In November, MP Materials announced plans, together with the Pentagon and Maaden, the Saudi state mining company, to build a rare earth refinery in the Middle East. Material is expected to come from deposits in Saudi Arabia and other countries. However, these deposits still need to be discovered and developed.
In March, the White House additionally contracted Australian rare earth company Lynas Rare Earths for USD 96 million to supply light and heavy rare earth oxides over the next four years. Here too, a minimum price guarantee of USD 110 for NdPr oxide forms part of the agreement. Lynas Rare Earths, with its processing facility in Malaysia, is the largest processor of rare earths outside China. Recently, Lynas successfully managed to produce dysprosium and terbium.
The US Reaches for Brazilian Rare Earths
Then came the next move in January this year: as part of a USD 1.6 billion debt and equity financing package, the US Department of Commerce announced its investment in USA Rare Earth. The startup, founded in 2019, plans to begin mining rare earths in Texas from 2028 onward. The company also intends to open a magnet factory in Oklahoma later this year.
This deal, however, triggered severe criticism, especially from Democrats. The ties between US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, the financial firm Cantor Fitzgerald, and USA Rare Earth cast a dubious light on the transaction. Doubts also exist regarding the economic viability of the Round Top Mountain deposit. The company itself admitted that ore grades are low compared to other rare earth mining sites. Additional uncertainty stems from the fact that a preliminary feasibility study will not be completed until the end of the year — typically a crucial decision-making tool for mining investors.
In April, USA Rare Earth announced plans to acquire Brazil’s Serra Verde Group for USD 2.8 billion. The US Development Finance Corporation had already pledged financing worth USD 565 million in February. Serra Verde owns the Pela Ema mine in Goiás state, where rare earths have been extracted from ionic adsorption clays since early 2024. Ionic adsorption clays are considered the most important source of heavy rare earths. This is the first deposit of its kind outside Asia.
Brazil possesses the world’s second-largest known rare earth reserves after China, estimated at 21 million tonnes. The potential is enormous, although mining activity remains limited. Thanks to Brazil’s raw material reserves, Trump recently lifted the exorbitant tariffs on Brazilian products. These tariffs had been intended as punishment for the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro by Brazil’s judiciary. During a recent visit to Washington, relations between Trump and Brazil’s labor-friendly President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva appeared positive.
US and France Plan Joint Magnet Factory
Europe is also involved: at the beginning of April, USA Rare Earth announced plans to invest in the French startup Carester. The company is building a rare earth processing and recycling facility in southern France. The agreement with USA Rare Earth includes the construction of a joint magnet factory in France. France still possesses significant expertise in the processing and separation of rare earths. In the 1980s, the country was one of the global leaders in the sector.
Perhaps things in the EU are not quite as bad as often portrayed by the White House. While Trump is acting decisively, the EU has also remained active. In April, the bloc concluded its 16th raw materials partnership — with the US. Relations therefore remain intact. However, these raw material partnerships have thus far contributed little to improving supplies of critical and strategic raw materials.
At least on paper, the EU has a systematic and long-term strategy. Here too, substantial funding is being allocated to secure industrial access to raw materials. However, the situation is far more complicated given the EU’s structure. Alongside EU-wide funds and programs such as the RESourceEU initiative, the Battery Booster Package, and strategic EU projects, individual member states are also launching their own programs.
In Germany, this takes the form of a EUR 1 billion raw materials fund, while France established the state-backed critical metals fund InfraVia in 2023 with EUR 500 million. Altogether, the EU is investing between EUR 4 and 5 billion in securing critical raw materials — significantly less than the US. Europe is primarily relying on a long-term strategy in which circular economy principles are intended to play a prominent role in securing raw materials.
Whether Trump’s aggressive approach will achieve results faster than the EU strategy focused on sustainability, circular economy, and rule of law — and burdened with many bureaucratic hurdles — remains to be seen. At least visually, the US appears better positioned.
In light of market-intervention measures such as minimum price guarantees — especially in a country strongly shaped by capitalism — the question arises whether the problem is also systemic in nature. Capital naturally flows most readily to where profits can be generated quickly. Industrialization — including the difficult work of developing raw materials at the beginning of the supply chain — requires major investments over long periods.
Institute for Rare Earths and Metals
Arndt Uhlendorff – May 2026
ISE AG, Institut für seltene Erden und Metalle AG
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